{"id":98406,"date":"2013-08-13T04:46:00","date_gmt":"2013-08-13T08:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mereja.com\/amharic\/?guid=184d62a9c1d32f750e812b3081cb114d"},"modified":"2013-08-13T04:46:00","modified_gmt":"2013-08-13T08:46:00","slug":"%e1%8b%a8%e1%8c%8d%e1%89%a5%e1%8c%b9-%e1%88%99%e1%88%b5%e1%88%8a%e1%88%9d-%e1%8b%88%e1%8a%95%e1%8b%b5%e1%88%9b%e1%88%9b%e1%89%be%e1%89%bd-%e1%8d%93%e1%88%ad%e1%89%b2-%e1%8b%8d%e1%8b%b5%e1%89%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mereja.net\/amharic\/98406","title":{"rendered":"\u12e8\u130d\u1265\u1339 \u1219\u1235\u120a\u121d \u12c8\u1295\u12f5\u121b\u121b\u127e\u127d \u1353\u122d\u1272 \u12cd\u12f5\u1240\u1275 \u12a5\u1293 \u12e8\u1293\u12ed\u120d \u1356\u1208\u1272\u12ab"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u12e8\u1215\u12f3\u1234\u12cd\u1295 \u130d\u12f5\u1265 \u1260\u1270\u1218\u1208\u12a8\u1270 \u1260\u12a2\u1275\u12ee\u1335\u12eb\u1293 \u1260\u130d\u1265\u133d \u1270\u12f0\u130b\u130b\u121a \u12f5\u122d\u12f5\u122e\u127d \u12eb\u1235\u1348\u120d\u130b\u1209\u1361\u1361 \u1260\u1293\u12ed\u120d \u1270\u134b\u1230\u1235 \u130a\u12dc\u12eb\u12ca \u12f5\u122d\u1305\u1275 \u12e8\u12cd\u1283 \u121a\u1292\u1235\u1274\u122e\u127d \u1235\u1265\u1230\u1263 \u1260\u12d3\u1218\u1275 \u12a0\u1295\u12f4 \u1270\u134b\u1230\u1231 \u1208\u130b\u122b \u1270\u1320\u1243\u121a\u1290\u1275\u1295 \u12c8\u12f0 \u134a\u1275 \u12e8\u121a\u122b\u1218\u12f1\u1260\u1275\u1295 \u12a0\u130b\u1323\u121a \u1208\u121b\u130e\u120d\u1260\u1275 \u121d\u12ad\u12ad\u122d \u12eb\u12f0\u122d\u130b\u1209\u1361\u1361 \u1260\u12a5\u1290\u12da\u1205 \u12f5\u122d\u12f5\u122e\u127d \u12e8\u123d\u130d\u130d\u122d \u1218\u1295\u130d\u1235\u1271 \u1260\u12cd\u1235\u1325 \u1356\u1208\u1272\u12ab \u12a8\u1218\u1320\u1218\u12f1 \u12a5\u1293 \u1260\u1215\u12dd\u1261 \u12e8\u1270\u12c8\u12a8\u1208 \u1263\u1208\u1218\u1206\u1291 \u12e8\u130d\u1265\u133d\u1295 \u12a0\u124b\u121d \u1260\u130d\u120d\u133d \u121b\u1235\u1240\u1218\u1325 \u12eb\u12f3\u130d\u1270\u12cb\u120d\u1361\u1361 \u12e8\u12cd\u1283 \u1326\u122d\u1290\u1275 \u12a8\u1243\u120b\u1275 \u1263\u12eb\u120d\u134d\u121d \u130d\u1265\u133d \u1260\u12c8\u1273\u12f0\u122b\u12ca \u12a0\u1235\u1270\u1233\u1230\u1265 \u12a5\u1295\u12f0\u1218\u1270\u12f3\u12f0\u1229\u12cb \u12e8\u12cd\u1235\u1321\u1295 \u1270\u1243\u12cd\u121e \u1208\u121b\u122d\u1308\u1265 \u1326\u122d\u1290\u1275 \u12c8\u12f0 \u12a0\u121b\u122b\u132d \u12e8\u121a\u1218\u1323\u1260\u1275 \u12a0\u130b\u1323\u121a\u121d \u1320\u1263\u1265 \u1262\u1206\u1295\u121d \u12e8\u1208\u121d \u1208\u121b\u1208\u1275 \u12a0\u12ed\u127b\u120d\u121d\u1361\u1361<\/span><\/div>\n
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\u130d\u1265\u133d \u12a5\u1294 \u1265\u127b \u12e8\u121a\u1208\u12cd\u1295 \u12e8\u12cd\u1283 \u1218\u1320\u1240\u121d \u12a0\u12ab\u1204\u12f5 \u12e8\u121d\u1273\u1235\u1348\u1345\u1218\u12cd \u1260\u12cb\u1293\u1290\u1275 \u12a2\u1275\u12ee\u1335\u12eb \u1260\u1200\u1308\u122d \u12cd\u1235\u1325 \u1356\u1208\u1272\u12ab\u12cb \u12a5\u1295\u12f3\u1275\u1228\u130b\u130b \u1270\u1243\u12cb\u121a\u12ce\u127d\u1295 \u1260\u1218\u122d\u12f3\u1275\u1363 \u1208\u1355\u122e\u1300\u12ad\u1275 \u12e8\u121a\u1230\u1321 \u1308\u1295\u12d8\u1266\u127d\u1295 \u1260\u121b\u1235\u12a8\u120d\u12a8\u120d \u12a5\u1293 \u12a5.\u12a2.\u12a0 \u1260\u130d\u1295\u1266\u1275 2011 \u12d3.\u121d \u1208\u134a\u122d\u121b \u12ad\u134d\u1275 \u12e8\u1206\u1290\u12cd\u1295\u1364 \u12606 \u1270\u134b\u1230\u1236\u127d \u1270\u1348\u122d\u121e \u1260\u12a2\u1275\u12ee\u1335\u12eb \u1260\u1245\u122d\u1261 \u12e8\u1340\u12f0\u1240\u12cd\u1295 \u12e8\u1215\u130d \u121b\u12d5\u1240\u134d \u12a5\u1295\u12f3\u12ed\u1340\u12f5\u1245 \u1270\u134b\u1230\u1231\u1295 \u1260\u1218\u12f0\u1208\u120d \u1290\u1260\u122d\u1361\u1361 \u1290\u1308\u122d \u130d\u1295 \u1260\u12da\u1205 \u1230\u12d3\u1275 \u12a5\u122b\u1237 \u1233\u1275\u1228\u130b\u130b \u12e8\u12a2\u1275\u12ee\u1335\u12eb\u1295 \u12a0\u1235\u1270\u12f3\u12f0\u122d \u121b\u1270\u122b\u1218\u1235 \u12a0\u1235\u1278\u130b\u122a \u1290\u12cd\u1361\u1361 \u1201\u1209\u1295 \u12a0\u1240\u134d \u12e8\u12cd\u1283 \u1235\u121d\u121d\u1290\u1271 \u12e8\u1270\u134b\u1230\u1235 \u1200\u1308\u122b\u1271 \u12a5\u1295\u12f3\u12eb\u1340\u12f5\u1241 \u1218\u12f0\u1208\u120d\u121d \u12e8\u1270\u1228\u130b\u130b \u12a0\u1235\u1270\u12f3\u12f0\u122d \u12ed\u1348\u120d\u130b\u120d\u1361\u1361<\/span><\/div>\n
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\u12e8\u134a\u1270\u129e\u127d \u12c8\u12f0 \u128b\u120b \u12a5\u1295\u12f2\u1209 \u130d\u1265\u133d \u1260\u122b\u1235\u130c \u1200\u1308\u122b\u1275 \u12a5\u122d\u1235 \u1260\u122d\u1235 \u1326\u122d\u1290\u1275 \u12a5\u1293 \u1218\u1270\u122b\u1218\u1235 \u1235\u1275\u1320\u1240\u121d \u12a5\u1295\u12f0\u1290\u1260\u1228\u12cd \u12e8\u122b\u1235\u130c \u1200\u1308\u122b\u1275 \u1260\u130d\u1265\u133d \u1275\u122d\u121d\u1235 \u12e8\u121a\u1320\u1240\u1219\u1260\u1275 \u130a\u12dc \u12e8\u12f0\u1228\u1230 \u12ed\u1218\u1235\u120b\u120d\u1361\u1361<\/span><\/div>\n
—–<\/span><\/div>\n

\u1338\u1210\u134a\u12cd\u1295 \u1208\u121b\u130d\u1298\u1275 \u1260\u12a2\u121c\u12ed\u120d \u12a0\u12f5\u122b\u123b\u1278\u12cd <\/span>mikiyaslaw@gmail.com<\/span><\/a><\/span> \u12ed\u133b\u1349\u120b\u1278\u12cd\u1361\u1361<\/span><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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በሚኪያስ በቀለ     <\/span><\/span><\/b><\/div>\n
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እንደ መነሻ፤ የግብጽ አብዮቶች<\/span><\/b><\/div>\n
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ግብጽን ለሠላሳ ዓመታት ያስተዳደራት የሁስኒ ሙባረክ መንግሥት ወዳጆቹን በሙስና አበለፀገ፣   <\/span>የኑሮ ውድነትን ከማየት በቀር መፍትሔ ማምጣት አቃተው፡፡ በቱንዚያ የሕዝቡን ሥልጣን ያዩት የግብጽ ሕዝቦች በቃን እንዲሉ ምክንያት ሆናቸው፡፡ ሠላሳ ዓመታት ተንደላቀው ሀገሪቷን ያስተዳደሯት፤ ሙባረክን ጨምሮ የተለያዩ ኃላፊዎች ዕጣ ፈንታቸው በሰልፉ ላይ የተሳተፉ ግለሰቦችን በማስገደል እና በፈፀሙት ሰፊ የሙስና ተግባር ችሎት መቆም ሆነ፡፡ በመቀጠል የወታደራዊ መንግሥት ግብጽን ያስተዳድር ጀመር፡፡ አሰተዳደሩን በሲቪል ለመቀየር ሀገራዊ ምርጫ ተሰናዳ፡፡ <\/span><\/div>\n
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በሙርሲ የሚመራውና በሙስሊም ወንድማማቾች የተመሠረተው የነጻነት እና ፍትሕ ፓርቲ (Freedom and Justice Party) አባላት 47.1 በመቶ በሆነ ጠባብ አብላጫ ድምጽ ግብጽን ለማስተዳደር ምክር ቤቱን ተቀላቀሉ፡፡ ሙሐመድ ሙርሲም 51.7 በመቶ ድምጽ አግኝተው የሃገሪቷ ጠቅላይ ገዥ ሆኑ፡፡ ነገር ግን ፕሬዘዳንት ሙርሲ የሥልጣን መንበራቸውን ከያዙ በኋላ ውሳኔያቸው በፍርድ ቤት ሳይቀር አይተችም የሚል መመሪያ አወጡ፡፡ የሀገሪቷን ኢኮኖሚ ቁልቁል ለቀቁት፡፡ ሕዝቡ የሙባረክ አስተዳደር በምን ጣዕሙ ይል ጀመር፡፡ የታህሪር አደባባይ በአዲሱ ፕሬዘዳንት ላይ ተቃውሞ በሚያቀርቡ ግብጻዊያን በድጋሚ ተሞላች፡፡ እራሳቸው የሾሙዋቸው የወታደሪያዊ ኃላፊዎች ሙርሲ ለሃገሪቷ መፍትሄ ማምጣት አይችሉም አሉ፡፡ አደባባይ የወጡትን ሰዎች ፍላጎት እንዲያሟሉ እና ውጥረቱን እንዲያረግቡ የ48 ሰዓት ገደብ አውጡላቸው፡፡ ሙርሲ አሻፈረኝ አሉ፡፡ በጭብጨባ በተሾሙ በዓመታቸው በወታደሩ ጉልበት እና በሕዝቡ ጩኸት ከመንበራቸው ተነሱ፡፡ የሙርሲ ደጋፊዎችም ዲሞክራሲ ለእስላም አይሠራምን? ብለው ጠየቁ፡፡ የመረጥናቸው ፕሬዘዳንት በመፈንቅለ መንግሥት ነው የተነሱትና ወደ ሥልጣናቸው ይመለሱ በሚል አመጻቸውን አቀጣጠሉ፡፡ ፖሊስ እና ወታደሩ በከፈቱት ተኩስ 54 የሙርሲ ደጋፊዎች ሐምሌ 2 ቀን ተገደሉ፡፡ አንዳንዶች በመሣሪያም ሳይቀር እንዋጋለን ብለው ሲያስተጋቡ ተደመጡ፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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በናይል ጉዳይ ተጠመዶ የከረመው የግብጽ መገናኛ ብዙሃን ለአዲሱ አብዮት ቦታውን ለቀቀ፡፡ የወታደራዊው ተቋም በድጋሚ አዲስ የሽግግር መንግስት አቋቋመ፡፡ የሽግግር መንግሥቱ ጊዜያዊ ፕሬዘዳንት ከፀደቀ 7 ወር ያስቆጠረውን ሕገ መንግሥት እንዲያሻሽሉ 10 የሕግ ባለሙያዎችን ያካተተ ኮሚቴ እንዲዋቀር መመሪያ አወጡ፡፡ ግብጽም እንዲሁ በሁለት ዓመት ሁለት አብዮቶችን አስተናገደች፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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\nየናይል ፖለቲካ፤ የሙርሲ አካሄድ<\/span><\/b><\/span>\n<\/div>\n
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መሐመድ ሙርሲ ጊዜ መለወጡን ግምት ውስጥ ሳይከቱ፣ ኢትዮጵያ ‘ግድብ በራሴ ወጪ አሠራለሁ’ ማለቷን ሳያጤኑ፣ በፊት ከነበሩት የግብጽ አስተዳደሮች ባልተለየ የራስጌ ተፋሰስ ሀገሮች በናይል ላይ ምንም ፕሮጀክት መሥራት አይችሉም፣ ናይል የግብጽ ብቻ ነው የሚል አመለካከት ሲያራምዱ ተስተውለዋል፡፡ የኢትዮጵያ መንግሥት የሕዳሴውን ግድብ ለመገንባት ውኃውን 500 ሜትር ማስቀየሱን ካሳወቀበት ጊዜ ተከትሎ በፕሬዘዳንታዊ ቤተመንግሥታቸው የፖለቲካ ፓርቲ ተወካዮችን ሰብስበው ኦነግ እና ኦጋዴንን ከመርዳት፣ ግብጽ መሳሪያ እየገዛች ነው የሚል የውሸት መረጃ እስከመልቀቅ እና ሁሉም አማራጭ ክፍት ነው እስከሚል አሳፋሪ ውይይት በቀጥታ የቴሊቪዥን ስርጭት አሳዩ፡፡ ‘የናይልን አንድ ጠብታ ውኃ ሳይቀር እንጠብቃለን’ ብለው ስብሰባውን ሲዘጉ ተስተዋሉ፡፡ ‘ናይል ከቀነሰ አማራጫችን ደማችን ነው’ ብለው ከበፊት ፕሬዘዳንቶች ባልተለየ የጦርነት ታንቡር አስጋቡ፡፡ የግብጽ አርበኝነታቸውን ለማሳየት ‘የግብጽ ሕዝብ አንድ መሆን አለበት’ በማለት የውስጥ ተቃውሟቸውን ለማብረድ ሞክሩ፡፡ ብዙም ባያዛልቃቸውም፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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ሙርሲ የተሳሳቱት ኢትዮጵያ ከበፊቱ በተሻለ መረጋጋቷ እና ለግንባታው ከሀገር ውስጥ ወጪዎች መጠቀሟ ግብጽ ግንባታውን ለማስቆም የሚያስችላትን አጋጣሚ ማጥበቡን ነው፡፡ የኢሕአዴግን መንግሥት ለማናጋትም ሆነ የግድቡን ወጪ ማስከልከል እንደ በፊቱ ቀላል እንዳልሆነ ዘነጉት፡፡ የተፋሰስ ሀገራቱ የጋራ ተጠቃሚነትን የሚያበረታታ የሕግ ማዕቀፍ በመፈረም መተባበራቸውን ከወረቀት የዘለለ ትርጉም አይኖረውም የሚል አቋም አራመዱ፡፡ የውኃ ጦርነት በዓለም አቀፍ ደረጃ የሚያስተች እና የማያዋጣ ተግባር መሆኑን ከግምት ሳይከቱ ማስፈራራት ተያያዙ፡፡ በተቃራኒው የኢትዮጵያ መንግሥት ይህን አስመልክቶ የወሰደው እርምጃ የተረጋጋና የጋራ ተጠቃሚነትን የሚያበረታታ ሆኖ መቀጠሉ ኢትዮጵያ በዓለም አቀፍ ደረጃ ተቀባይነትን እንድታገኝ እና በትክክለኛው አቅጣጫ እንደተራመደች አስመሰከረ፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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\nበአሁኑ ጊዜ ኢትዮጵያ የሕዳሴውን ግድብ እንዳታስፈጽም ከግብጽ ሊደርስባት የሚችለው ብቸኛ ጥቃት ለውስጥ ተቃዋሚዎች እና ለሽምቅ ተዋጊዎች መርዳት ይመስለኛል፡፡ የጠላቴ ጠላት ወዳጄ ነው የተለመደ የውጊያ ስልት ነው፡፡ ሕውኀት ከግብጽ ባገኘው እርዳታ ደርግ በአባይ ላይ ያስጀመረውን ግድብ መምታቱ የቅርብ ጊዜ ታሪክ ነው፡፡ ስለዚህ የኢትዮጵያ መንግሥት በውስጥ ያሉትን እንደ ኦጋዴን እና ግንቦት 7 ያሉ ታጣቂዎችን አሸባሪ ከማለት ከልማት ተጠቃሚ በማድረግ ለጥያቂያቸው ምላሽ መስጠት ይኖርበታል፡፡ የሙስሊሙን ማኅበረሰብ እና የተቃዋሚ ፓርቲዎችን ጥያቄ በአግባቡ በመመልስ አንድ ኢትዮጵያን መመሥረት ከግብጽ ጥቃት ለመዳን ያለው ብቸኛ አማራጭ ነው፡፡ አባይን ስንገድብ የዜጎችን ሰብኣዊ መብት ጥሰት አብሮ መገደብ ያስፈልጋል፡፡ ለግድቡ <\/span>የሚሰበሰቡትን ገንዘቦች በግልጽነት የተለያዩ የኅብረተሰቡን ክፍሎች ባሳተፈ መልኩ ኦዲት መደረግ እና ግድቡ የሁሉም ኢትዮጵያዊ የጋራ ፕሮጀክትነቱ መረጋገጥ አለበት፡፡<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
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የሕዳሴው ግድብ በዋነኛነት ለኃይል ማመንጫ ጥቅም ታስቦ የተረቀቀ ነው፡፡ ከሦስቱ (ኢትዮጵያ፣ ግብጽ እና ሱዳን) ተፋሰስ ሃገሮች ሁለት፣ ሁለት እና አራት ገለልተኛ ባለሙያዎችን ያሳተፈው ኮሚቴም ያቀረበው ሪፖርት ከሞላ ጎደል ግድቡ በግብጽ እና ሱዳን ላይ ወሳኝ ጉዳት እንደማያደርስ ነው፡፡ ተጨማሪ ጥናት እንደሚያስፈልግ በመግለጽ፡፡ ስለዚህ የግብጽ አስተዳደር እንደ ሱዳን ከግድቡ ያለውን ተጠቃሚነት (ከጎርፍ አደጋዎች፣ ከደለል፣ እና ከርካሽ የኃይል አቅርቦት) ለማስጠበቅ ፖሊሲውን ቀስ በቀስ በማስተካከል የግድቡን ግንባታ መቀበል ብቻ ሳይሆን በባለሙያዊ እርዳታም መተባበር ይገባዋል፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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የምዕራብያውያን ወደ ግብጽ መመለስ<\/span><\/b><\/div>\n
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ገማል አብዱልናስርን ተከትለው የፕሬዝዳንትነቱን ቦታ የተቀናጁት አንዋር ሳዳት ግብጽ ከእስራኤል ጋር ያላትን ግጭት በካምፕ ዴቪድ ስምምነት ቋጩት፡፡ ወራሻቸው ሁስኒ ሙባረክም ከአውራሻቸው በተሻለ ከእስራኤል ጋር ፍቅራቸውን ጨመሩ፡፡ የእስራኤል ቀኝ እጅ አሜሪካም ከግብጽ ጋር ያላትን ወዳጅነት ጨመረች፡፡ መሣሪያ እስከ አፍንጫዋ አስታጠቀቻት፡፡ ቢሊዮን ዶላሮችን በሰበብ አስባቡ ታቀብላት ጀመር፡፡ ነገር ግን እስራኤልና ግብጽ ታሪካዊ ጠላት ናቸውና ፍቅራቸው ከመንግሥታት አልፎ ሕዝቡ ውስጥ መስረጽ አቃተው፡፡ በተቃራኒው የኢትዮ-ኤርትራ ጠብ በመንግሥታቱ መሃል ብቻ እንደሆነው፡፡ እንግዲህ ይህ ቀዝቃዛ ፍቅር ባለበት የሙስሊም ወንድማማቾች ፓርቲ  <\/span>ወደ ሥልጣን መጣ፡፡ የሙስሊም ወንድማማቾች ፓርቲ ከእስራኤል ጋር የነበረውን የካምፕዴቪድ ስምምነት ካለው ነባራዊ ፖለቲካ አንጻር ቢቀበለውም፤ የእስላማዊ አስተዳደርን የሚደግፍ ሕገ መንግሥት ለመመሥረት ያለውን ፍላጎት ግልጽ አደረገ፡፡ ይህም ለአሜሪካ በተለይም ለእስራኤል ስጋት የሚያሳድር ኩነት ሆነ፡፡ አሜሪካ ከሙስሊም ወንድማማቾች ይልቅ የዘመናት ወዳጇ የሆነውን የግብጽ ጦር መርጣለች፡፡ የሙርሲን ውድቀት መፈንቅለ መንግሥት ለማለት ድምጽ አንሷታል፡፡ ምክንያቱም አባባሉ በዓመት ለግብጽ የምትሰጠውን የ1.5 ቢሊዮን ዶላር እርዳት እንድታቆም ሕጓ ያስገድዳታል፡፡ ፖለቲከኞቿ እንደ በፊቱ አቋማቸውን ማስቀመጥ ከብዷቸዋል፡፡ ዝምታቸው በሙርሲ ውድቀት እጃቸው አለበት ከሚል እስከ እስላማዊ ዲሞክራሲ በምዕራብያውያን ዘንድ አይፈቀድም ወደ ሚል ድማዳሜ እወሰደ ነው፡፡ <\/span><\/div>\n
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በግብጽ ውስጥ ከእስራኤል እና\/ወይም ከምዕራብያውያን ጋር ተቃርኖ ያለው አስተዳደር መመሥረቱ ኢትዮጵያ በናይል ላይ ለሚሠሩ ፕሮጀክቶች በዓለም ባንክ እና በመሳሰሉት ተመካኝቶ ገንዘብ እንድታገኝ መንገድ ይከፍታል፡፡ ግብጽን ለመቅጣት የናይል ወንዝ ፍሰትን ከመቀነስ ሌላ ወሳኝ አማራጭ የለም፡፡ የበፊት ተሞክሮዎች ይህንን ይመሰክራሉ፡፡ ሦስት ቀደምት ተሞክሮችን እንመልከት፡፡ ግብጽ በእንግሊዝ ቀኝ ግዢ ስር በነበረችበት እ.ኢ.አ. በ1924 ዓ.ም ላይ የግብጽ ወታደር ጠቅላይ ገዢ እና የሱዳን አስተዳዳሪ የነበሩት ሰሊስ ስታክ በካይሮ አደባባይ መገደላቸውን ተከትሎ የእንግሊዝ መንግሥት እንደ ቅጣት በሱዳን የጎዚራ እስኪም ለተሰኘውን ትልቅ የጥጥ እርሻ የሚረዳ እ.ኢ.አ. በ1925 ዓ.ም የተጠናቀቀ የሲና ግድብ ለማሠራት ምክንያት ሁኗቸዋል፡፡ <\/span><\/div>\n
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የግብጹ ገማል አብዱልናስር ለአስዋን ግድብ ማስገንቢያ እ.ኢ.አ በ1953 ዓ.ም ከአሜሪካ የተገባላቸው ቃል በሦስት ዓመቱ በመሰረዙ ከሩስያ ለመበደር በወሰኑት መሠረት እ.ኢ.አ በ1964 ዓ.ም አሜሪካ ለቀዝቃዛው ጦርነት ምላሽ በኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ በናይል ላይ ሊሠሩ የሚችሉ የኃይል ማመንጫ እና የመስኖ ፕሮጀክቶችን እንዲጠኑ አድርጋለች፡፡ የሕዳሴው ግድብም የዚህ ጥናት አንዱ ውጤት ነው፡፡ ጉልበት ከመጠቀሟ በፊት እንግሊዝ የስዊዝ ቦይን የግብጽ ንብረት ለማድረግ የተነሱትን ገማል አቡዱልናስር ሐሳብ ለማስለወጥ በኡጋንዳ የኦይን ፎል ግድብ ለመሥራት ዋነኛ ምክንያቷ እንደነበር ይገለጻል፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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እስራኤል እና አሜሪካ በተለየ እንዲሁም ምዕራብያውያን ባጠቃላይ የሕዳሴውን ግድብ እና ሌላ የአባይ ፕሮጀክቶችን ከግብጽ ጋር እንደ መደራደሪያነት ሊጠቀሙበት ይችላሉ፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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የሙስሊም ወንድማማቾች ፓርቲ በዚህ ጊዜ ከሥልጣን መባረር ብቻ አይደለም፣ ሙርሲ በቁም እስር ላይ ሲሆኑ ለሌሎች አመራሮቹ የእስር ፍቃድ አቃቢ ሕግ ከፍ\/ቤት እንዳወጣ ሰምተናል፡፡ በሽግግር መንግሥቱ ውስጥ አንድም የወንድማማቾች ፓርቲ አባል አልተሳተፈም፡፡ የሙስሊም ወንድማማቾች ፓርቲ ከግብጽ ፖለቲካ በድጋሚ እየራቁ ይመስላል፡፡ በሚቀጥለው ምርጫም እስላማዊ ፓርቲ ካልተሳተፈ፤ የምዕራብያውያን ድጋፍ ያለው አስተዳደር እንደሚመጣ አመላካች ነው፡፡ የግብጽ ወታደራዊ ተቋም ከአሜሪካ ጋር ካለው የከረመ ወዳጅነት እና የሽግግር መንግሥቱ ባለሙያዎችና ሊበራሎችን ማካተቱ ለዚህ ትንበያ እንደ ምክንያት ተጠቃሽ ነው፡፡ በአንዋር ሳዳት እና በሁስኒ ሙባረክ አስተዳደር ጊዜ እንደነበረው ግብጽ በሰሜን ምስራቅ አፍሪካ የአሜሪካ ዋነኛ ወዳጅ መሆኗ ከቀጠለ ኢትዮጵያ የናይል ፕሮጀክቶቹን በራሷ ወጪ ማሠራቷን ትቀጥላለች፡፡ በተቃራኒው በግብጽ የእስራኤልን ጠብ አጫሪ ድርጊት በመቃወም አሻፈረኝ የሚል አስተዳደር ከመጣ ቦንድ ከመግዛት የሚያስጥለን አጋጣሚ ሊመጣ ይችላል፡፡ እስራኤልም ከግብጽ ጋር ያላትን ቀዝቃዝ ሠላም አመካኝታ በዓለም ላይ የታወቀችበትን በአግባቡ መስኖ የመጠቀም ልምድ ኢትዮጵያን ጨምሮ ለራስጌ ሀገራት ማስተማሩዋን ትቀጥላለች፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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\nየግብጽ አለመረጋጋት በናይል ፖለቲካ ላይ የሚኖረው እንድምታ <\/span><\/b><\/span>\n<\/div>\n
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ግብጽ የናይልን ውኃ ለዘመናት እንግሊዝ በሰጠቻት የቅኝ ግዛት አስተሳሰብ በመመራት በበላይነት ስትጠቀም እና ስታስተዳድር ቆይታለች፡፡ የብቻ የመጠቀም መብቷን እ.ኢ.አ በ1959 ዓ.ም ሙሉ የናይል ፍሰትን ለሁለት የተከፋፈሉበትን ስምምነት በመጥቀስ ስታሰፍፅም ቆየች፡፡ የራስጌ ሀገራት ውኃውን እንዳይጠቀሙ ለፕሮጀክቶች የሚሰጡ እርዳታዎችን በማስከልከል፣ እርስ በርስ ጦርነቶችን በመደገፍ እና የጦርነት ዛቻዎችን በመለፈፍ የናይልን ሙሉ ተፋሰስ ሳይነካ ከታች ሆና ስትቀበል ኖረች፡፡ አሁን ጊዜው ተለወጠ፤ የተፋሰስ ሀገሮቹ የተረጋጋ መንግሥት ኖራቸው፣ ኢትዮጵያ በራሴ ወጪ ትልቅ የኃይል ማመንጫ እገነባለሁ አለች፣ ሁሉን ያሳተፈ የተፋሰስ ውኃ የሕግ ማዕቀፍ ኢትዮጵያን ጨምሮ በስድስት የተፋሰስ ሀገሮች ተፈረመ፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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\nየግብጽ አለመረጋጋት ምን ያህል ዘላቂ ነው? ክብደቱስ ምን ያክል ነው? የሚለው ጥያቄ የዓለም አቀፍ ተንታኞችን የሚያነጋግር ጉዳይ ሆኗል፡፡ በሕዝቡ ድምፅ ሥልጣን ላይ የወጡት መሐመድ ሙርሲ በመፈንቅለ መንግሥት ነው የተነሱት በሚል በሚሊዮኖች የሚቆጠሩ ደጋፊዎቻቸው ወደ መንበራቸው እንዲመለሱ ተቃውሟቸውን ቀጥለዋል፡፡ የሙስሊም ወንድማማቾች ደጋፊዎች ‘ዲሞክራሲያችንን ሊቀለብስ የሚሞክረውን በመሳሪያ ሳይቀር እንዋጋለን’ ሲሉ እየተደመጡ ነው፡፡ ሁለተኛው ትልቅ እስላማዊ ፓርቲ-ኑር ፓርቲ- የወታደራዊ አማራጮች ሊኖሩ እንደሚችሉ ገል<\/span>ጿ<\/span>ል፡፡ የሙርሲ የደኅንነት አማካሪ የነበሩት ኢሳም ኤል ሀዳድ ‘መፈንቅለ መንግሥቱ ለዓለም ግልጽ የሆነ መልዕክት ነው፤ ዲሞክራሲ ለእስላም አይሆንም’ የሚል አስተያየት ሰጥተዋል፡፡ ከሞላ ጎደል የግብጽ አለመረጋጋት በቀላሉ መፍትሄ አይገኝለትም የሚሉ የፖለቲካ ተንታኞች ትንሽ አይደሉም፡፡ አዲሱ የሽግግር መንግሥት ከሁለቱ ትልልቅ እስላማዊ ፓርቲዎች – ከሙስሊም ወንድማማቾችም እና ከኑር ፓርቲ – አንድ አባል ሳያሳትፍ 34 አባላትን ይዞ ተዋቅሯል፡፡ የግብጽ ዕጣ ፈንታ እርስ በእርስ ጦርነት ነው የሚሉ ትንበያዎችም ከየአቅጣጫው እየተሰሙ ነው፡፡<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
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የግብጽ አለመረጋጋት በናይል ፖለቲካ ላይ የሚኖረውን እንድምታ ከሁለት አቅጣጫ ማየት ይቻላል፡፡ በናይል ላይ የሚደራደረው የሽግግር መንግሥት ከሚኖረው አቋም እና ግብጽ ለዘመናት ስታስኬደው የነበረውን ለብቻ የመጠቀም እና የማስተዳደር አካሄድ ከማስፈጸም አኳያ፡፡ <\/span><\/div>\n
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የሕዳሴውን ግድብ በተመለከተ በኢትዮጵያና በግብጽ ተደጋጋሚ ድርድሮች ያስፈልጋሉ፡፡ በናይል ተፋሰስ ጊዜያዊ ድርጅት የውኃ ሚኒስቴሮች ስብሰባ በዓመት አንዴ ተፋሰሱ ለጋራ ተጠቃሚነትን ወደ ፊት የሚራመዱበትን አጋጣሚ ለማጎልበት ምክክር ያደርጋሉ፡፡ በእነዚህ ድርድሮች የሽግግር መንግስቱ በውስጥ ፖለቲካ ከመጠመዱ እና በሕዝቡ የተወከለ ባለመሆኑ የግብጽን አቋም በግልጽ ማስቀመጥ ያዳግተዋል፡፡ የውኃ ጦርነት ከቃላት ባያልፍም ግብጽ በወታደራዊ አስተሳሰብ እንደመተዳደሩዋ የውስጡን ተቃውሞ ለማርገብ ጦርነት ወደ አማራጭ የሚመጣበት አጋጣሚም ጠባብ ቢሆንም የለም ለማለት አይቻልም፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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ግብጽ እኔ ብቻ የሚለውን የውኃ መጠቀም አካሄድ የምታስፈፅመው በዋናነት ኢትዮጵያ በሀገር ውስጥ ፖለቲካዋ እንዳትረጋጋ ተቃዋሚዎችን በመርዳት፣ ለፕሮጀክት የሚሰጡ ገንዘቦችን በማስከልከል እና እ.ኢ.አ በግንቦት 2011 ዓ.ም ለፊርማ ክፍት የሆነውን፤ በ6 ተፋሰሶች ተፈርሞ በኢትዮጵያ በቅርቡ የፀደቀውን የሕግ ማዕቀፍ እንዳይፀድቅ ተፋሰሱን በመደለል ነበር፡፡ ነገር ግን በዚህ ሰዓት እራሷ ሳትረጋጋ የኢትዮጵያን አስተዳደር ማተራመስ አስቸጋሪ ነው፡፡ ሁሉን አቀፍ የውኃ ስምምነቱ የተፋሰስ ሀገራቱ እንዳያፀድቁ መደለልም የተረጋጋ አስተዳደር ይፈልጋል፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
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የፊተኞች ወደ ኋላ እንዲሉ ግብጽ በራስጌ ሀገራት እርስ በርስ ጦርነት እና መተራመስ ስትጠቀም እንደነበረው የራስጌ ሀገራት በግብጽ ትርምስ የሚጠቀሙበት ጊዜ የደረሰ ይመስላል፡፡<\/span><\/div>\n
—–<\/span><\/div>\n

ጸሐፊውን ለማግኘት በኢሜይል አድራሻቸው <\/span>mikiyaslaw@gmail.com<\/span><\/a><\/span> ይጻፉላቸው፡፡<\/span>\n<\/div>\n

Read more ›<\/a><\/div>\n

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